If you want to live dangerously, mgm, you'll definitely need the Availability Tool, (do a search here if you don't already have it, or perhaps someone can point directly to it?) to help you monitor the F cabin.

Basically, you can watch the F and A inventory as you approach your upgrade window, and make a somewhat informed decision as to whether to keep holding out for your elec upgrade, or not to chance it and use miles or vip to confirm it.

Let's say today your flight shows F7 A7....no sweat, just keep watching...what's critical for you is to make sure that A doesn't go down to zero....if it does, you can't call AA up and upgrade on the spot with miles or your vip.

So, if you still have F5 A5 as you enter your upgrade window, you could probably be safe in assuming your elec upgrade will go through, although not necessarily right at 100 hrs. If, OTOH, it's F2 A2, that doesn't necessarily mean there are 4 seats in FC...it could mean there are only two; AA is willing to sell either two full fare FC, two discounted F or YUP fares, and/or still has two seats available for upgrades. In that case, I'd go ahead and upgrade because you still have 4 days for those seats to fill, and they very well could, leaving no inventory to be converted over to X for your elec upgrade.

Whether or not you want to check this daily while you're in HNL is a whole 'nother story, but you can use this to help you take a more calculated risk in holding on to your vip/miles, while waiting as long as you can for your elec upgrade to clear.