FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Coronavirus / COVID-19 : general fact-based reporting
Old Feb 20, 2020 | 8:27 am
  #2252  
trueblu
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Originally Posted by nk15
But if it dies down by summer, then it may be easier to contain and eradicate with fewer remain cases in some places? I guess the swine fly of 2009 persisted over the North hemisphere summer, but how did it eventually get eradicated?
It hasn't been eradicated..it just causes far fewer infections due to increased herd immunity from a combination of vaccination, natural exposure and other new strains of influenza becoming more 'fit' i.e. competitive.

But yes, if we could have cases down the low hundreds, active containment is still formally possible. Believe it or not, that window of opportunity is now (if we believe lack of cases in countries reporting no or few cases). Which is why lax attitudes to containment are really bizarre. Otherwise, as with H1N1, we may need to see a global peak first (hundreds of millions++ cases), then decline, and then try to eradicate. Scenario 3 is that this just fizzles in the background without containment, for reasons that aren't well understood. MERS is like that, but it's a very different beast to COVID-19.

tb
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