Originally Posted by
nk15
This is one of reasons why we don't do good prevention of other diseases as well by trying to fight obesity, centenary lifestyle, smoking, unhealthy diet, etc. Same reason also we don't do enough for climate change risks. Prevention is not "sexy enough" for politicians, not profitable for corporations (usually the opposite) who often influence or control the politicians, and it is too distant in the future and uncertain/hypothetical for the public to care, as studies have shown. It also requires mindset changes and behavioral modifications, i.e., effort, and up front.
Yup to all of the above...
Originally Posted by
iahphx
That's pretty much what I'm thinking, trueblu -- especially since my level of "trust" with all the information coming out of China is fairly low. I'm also wondering if there's some sort of "super strain" of this virus that isn't common outside of Wuhan. Like it seems fairly likely that the "Westerdam strain" is somehow different. On the Westerdam, the victim was apparently doing nothing to segregate herself from the other pax (other than, at 83, I assume she wasn't the life of the party) and we're pretty certain that -- after weeks of being couped up with the other pax and crew -- there wasn't widespread illness on that ship. The "Westerdam Experience" seems far more common than the "Diamond Princess Experience: like we don't even have widespread death and transmission in Shanghai and Beijing, and certainly not in other cities outside of China where a few cases have popped up.
.
Virus evolution is certainly possible: it's possible that the Diamond Princess strain is highly contagious but not very pathogenic...that would actually be the best case scenario in terms of global pandemic: we may see half a million excess deaths, but that will just be uncomfortable in terms of strains on the infrastructure (1% additional mortality burden), and if it happens in the Spring and later, might not be that bad at all, since winter pressures on hospital beds may be relieved. However, the last data on saw on this issue a couple of weeks back suggested no major evolution of the virus as yet...watch this space...
Originally Posted by
nk15
from the WAPO today:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fo...cid=spartanntp
"Japan braces for new virus transmission phase
Japan reported a sharp rise in the number of people with coronavirus over the weekend, with 65 people now confirmed to have the virus, up from 33 on Thursday. The fact that many of the latest cases cannot be traced directly to China forced Health Minister Katsunobu Kato to admit that the virus has entered a “new phase” of local transmission.....
The country had initially employed a “quarantine-based” approach, for instance restricting entry to people who had recently been in Wuhan, said Shigeru Omi, chief director with the Japan Community Health Care Organization, an organization that runs medical centers across Japan. But now the country is shifting to an approach focused on community-based control and treatment, he said......
Omi said that the
“goal of this strategy is to slow the speed of transmission and reduce mortality” — a de facto acknowledgment that it has now become impossible to prevent the virus from spreading further in Japan.
“My gut feeling is we can avoid a situation such as Wuhan,” he said. “Some transmission is inevitable, but the case fatality rate will not be as high as Wuhan and Hubei.”
(bolding mine)
Japan has been remarkably woeful in response to this threat. I would have predicted the opposite, since the Olympics are looming, but compared with SG and HK, it's just been really poor from what we can tell. SG has been the most open in terms of reporting, so it may just be that the Japanese have failed to contain despite their best efforts (Diamond Princess fiasco notwithstanding).
In terms of whether to travel to Japan or not...today, maybe, in two weeks or a month? I think all bets are off. They have by far the most local transmission without clear sources of anywhere...They have also shown more than anywhere outside of China, breach of PPE in healthcare workers (that we know of).
tb