I tend to trust the judgment of trained professionals over my own knowledge of meterorology. I also don't have access to the many "ride reports" which are called or sent in by enroute aircraft and provide up-to-the-minute information about conditions in specific locations.
One doesn't have to do too much searching to find the reports of messy accidents involving injured crew and passengers from sudden and unexpected turbulence.
I'd rather wait 5 minutes for my drink.