Originally Posted by
LTN Phobia
I suggest you get some updates in a couple of days' time about the situation in Japan. Until yesterday, due to very strict criteria that needed to be met for testing, there were cases with strong suspicions remaining untested. That's just changed, and more cases are being found with unknown route of infection.
I suspect the picture may look quite different (although I do hope not) in a couple of days' time.
Originally Posted by
evergrn
Now we're having second thoughts. It's a lot of money to eat if we cancel, I'm sure the risk is still extremely low, and it'd be major bummer to cancel this vacation. But I don't like where things seem to be trending.
Honestly, the bigger complication chance for travelers IMO is governmental restrictions on travel or freedom to move, which would be particularly troublesome while already on the trip. I have a few upcoming trips to Taiwan/Japan and my main concern is potential travel restrictions that might go into effect while traveling. Ironically, Japan will probably be at lower risk for this given their apparent need to appease China / the global community esp. in advance of Tokyo 2020 (as
KevinDTW noted) and perhaps their cultural inclination to ignore things and hope they go away, but it should still be a major concern for travelers who are transiting other countries (e.g., Taiwan) where pax may also be banned from transiting should things get considerably worse in the country of departure.
In Taiwan and other countries with aggressive mandatory quarantine programs, I'd worry about being quarantined due to coming into contact (or even the government's perception of coming into contact) with a potential infected person and possibly getting stuck there for 14 days and having to rearrange flights, make new hotel plans, and figure out the work situation. There could also be complications returning to the home country, either with mandatory quarantine or even an outright ban (although not likely in the USA for citizens).
To be abundantly clear, I'm not at all downplaying the risk from coronavirus itself, especially for those with different circumstances (e.g., traveling with elderly / infants / those more susceptible to complications); I just think a lot of the concerns expressed are premature.
As a last resort, you can decide not to go now and wait as long as possible before actually canceling and hope that there might be a travel waiver at some point, even if unlikely.