Originally Posted by
billgris
First time posting here.
I've been saving Alaska miles for a few years in anticipation of a first class Asia or Europe trip for my wife and I. I'm up to 260,000 so I have enough for most airlines, but we are likely to have a child in the coming year and since 2-week babysitters are rare, we aren't going to take the trip without our child within the next several years.
My question is, am I at much risk in seeing my miles devalued by 2024 (whether that be to changes in redemption rates, mergers etc)? Would you rather do everything you can to use the miles now? I've been accruing close to 50k a year through my sig Visa and regular flying, so I'll have close to 500k by the time my wife and I could likely leave our kid for an extended time. Is a dramatic change in mileage plans (to the extent that I'd miss out on first class flights with the miles I have now) very common?
I realize it's all speculation but any insight would be appreciated.
Welcome to Flyertalk!
If anyone gives you a definitive answer, I would be skeptical. The only thing we can do is take a look back at the last 4 years and use that to
guess what the future might bring.
AS miles are unique from those in the big 3 in that you are dependent on AS' relationship with partner airlines. Not only do you have to consider the value of the miles, but also the cycling of airline partners that AS has. If we look back over the last 4 years, there have been several new partner airlines added, but also several lost. Most notably (IMO) American. I can say from my personal experience, that it is becoming more difficult to find premium class award inventory, but it can be done. The most important thing is having a flexible schedule. There is no way to know what options you will have in 4 years. When it comes to award travel in general, I think most people operate with an attitude of "if I see something I like, I grab it now, because it probably won't be there later".