Originally Posted by
CZAMFlyer
Why are people canceling trips to Beijing, Hong Kong and Taipei? This is not a zombie apocalypse; it's the seventh strain of the common cold. Yes, one of the other six strains is the infamous SARS, but this nCoV is a much less virulent strain. Of the 56* (!!!) reported deaths to date, the median age of the deceased is 61 (ie: senior) and the lone young fatality was an immuno-compromised 35 year old man. If you are healthy and possess a normal immune function, you are very unlikely to suffer more than regular cold symptoms, if anything.
I'd certainly understand suspending travel plans to any of the locked down cities, or traveling if you are also immune-compromised, but I personally wouldn't hesitate to travel tomorrow to other cities in the region, including in mainland China.
Chinese officials are NOT repeating their SARS-era coverups; the pendulum may actually have swung too far the other way this time in terms of them being over-cautious.
The advice we're receiving from the Public Health Agency of Canada is that the risk remains low in Canada and for Canadian travellers. There are no plans to suspend nonstop flights from China to Canada, although airport kiosks have been programmed to ask specific travel questions to people who have been in Hubei province the past two weeks. Agency nurses (ie: for CBSA staff) advise that immigration officials wear gloves only because they handle passports and documents from potentially affected travellers, and some opt to wear masks. The most effective preventative action is, as always, frequent hand washing.
This virus has killed a few people, but not nearly as many as have died here at home from the flu this winter. Educate yourselves, follow the advice of the health professionals, and don't succumb to fear and panic.
Now might be a great time to visit some of the regional destinations and take advantage of lower airfares, higher vacancy rates and all the sheeple staying at home.
I think you are underestimating this. I would agree about Taiwan, and perhaps Hong Kong. Where there are likely effective mechanisms in place.
I would not go to Beijing except for a pretty compelling reason however.
As to China not repeating the SARS coverup, it's again not that simple. It does appear China as a whole is now taking the issue very seriously, but that may be too little too late. By all account local authorities in Wuhan did their best to minimize the thing when it could have been contained, until it truly got out of hand. And now the thing is more or less on the loose all over China, and it won't be easy to contain, now that is already all over China. Plus, there are likely many cases that might be hiding rather than seeking help if they don't trust the system.
As to there having been "only" 56 casualties so far, this is likely grossly underestimated. Perhaps more to the point, the number itself is more or less meaningless if for a while there is an exponential growth. It it doubles say every four days, it's about sixteen times in a month, 256 times in two months. At which point control measures might start kicking in and reduce the growth rate. Until numbers eventually peak.
But anyway, nobody really knows how bad this is, or not, at this point.
And yes, I would agree that Canada is currently well-organized to deal with the issue, and so are most western countries. But China is still a different story.