Love reading the lively commentary in this post and appreciate everyone's willingness to pitch in their two cents.
OP has performed preliminary research which is excellent but I would recommend taking this a step further and come up with a spreadsheet for expected routes and fare classes and analyze the results from the different programs.
The age of question of "which FFP is best" really only has one answer: "it depends". Many of these factors are dependent on the individual (i.e., fare classes (financial constraint), preferences (airline/seat/countries/perceived safety), duration (routings non-stop vs layovers). Then there's the question of what one values the most in a FFP - is it OW status? baggage allowance? availability of award space? complimentary upgrades, etc.? the answer is completely dependent on the individual.
Once everything is put on paper, that's when the results become clearer - either one will qualify for top tier status for all programs or there will be one program that will demonstrate clear benefits over the others. if one wishes to further complicate the matter, there is the concept of lifetime status which generally takes at least 5-10 years to achieve.