Originally Posted by
dickerso
If we're aiming for 1.5 degrees C of total warming, aviation is about 25% of the total budget because we now have a clear technological path to rapid decarbonization of terrestrial power systems, automotive transit, etc. Please note, this is for the integral of the time-period between now and 2050. In the year 2050 itself, aviation would essentially be close to half the world's emissions if the IATAs predictions for passenger growth are accurate. To say this is a rounding error is totally illogical.
You seem to get carried away by %s and confuse reality with vague roadmaps.
But let's look at your numbers - aviation is the source of 2% of the total global carbon emissions today. You posit that aviation will be about 25% of the budget (whatever that means). If we figure a doubling of actual aviation emissions and accepting that this would mean 25% of the total in 2050, it would mean that TOTAL global carbon emissions in 2050 are only 16% that of today (1/6th) Now if we have managed to
reduce total carbon emissions by 84% in the next 30 years, aviation emissions will be negligible in terms of climate change.
Do you really have a clear technology path for 84% reduction? If so, expect a call from Stockholm (no, not from the Thunbergs
)