We have plenty of data points (in the Applying thread) that show that for whatever unknown reason, Chase evaluates 5/24 by looking at your credit report and nothing else (specifically, nothing within Chase's databases). There were people who applied in cases where they'd be at 6/24 or above if Chase was counting their own business cards opened months ago, but 4/24 or below if Chase's didn't count those, and all of those people were approved. Multiple data points of that sort proved that Chase wasn't counting their own business cards.

Now, of course, Chase could change how they do this count tomorrow. But so far we have not had any datapoints showing that they've changed their count.

Ie, we're not guessing about what Chase does. We're gathering evidence about what Chase does. One person can't do that easily alone, but a collective community like FlyerTalk can.