I would make something like my example table and try to add up what it is costing you and whether it is worth it (and whether you would have to spend unusually on next statement to try and get the nights to credit on your next statement, since you look to be $10,001 - $15,000 short).
Someone is working through same risk for 2 nights on the
Main Thread -
In theory if you can wait until January or February for status, the credit card credits should all work out eventually, so mattress run is a waste in that sense, but not making globalist wasn't worth it when I did an example earlier this year. (this is just a random example for this week at a Tier 1, but wouldn't personally fly somewhere to get 6 cheaper nights), compared to paying a little more locally (holiday staycation?)
Globablist Value example