What has been your previous year history? 21MQM roll-over is very low and I do think they look at a longer timeframe.

Reading the other post I could see two other elements play 1) corporate contracts (applies to me too) and 2) NYC being a super competitive hub/focus city with presence of all 3 majors, and a lot of direct flights being available to anywhere. LAX has a bit of that too, but probably not as much as NYC?
Still think the odds are high you'll get it but it may take you another year of consistently flying that much... *fun*!