The problem for IHG and the better hotels (i.e. IC, Kimpton, Regent) is I think twofold.

Firstly there is little real incentive to stay with them without RA or IC status unless you would be making the stay without any loyalty benefits anyway (so what does the loyalty programme deliver in terms of incremental revenue?)

Secondly the footprint is small so even those guests who are loyal are going to have peak and trough years depending on where their travels take them (unless they have exactly the same travel pattern year on year).

I am pretty marginal for renewal this year as I just haven't been travelling to places where IC etc. was a convenient option. You add to this uncertainty of renewal and diminishing benefits and it no longer makes a lot of sense to go well out of your way to retain RA and I see no real reason why if you don't have it you would play the lottery to get it (unless it required zero effort to attain, which calls its value to IHG into question).

I think the problem starts at AMB it needs to be a more compelling proposition in itself at perhaps a commensurately higher price (since other chains effectively sell top status via cards for circa $500) with RA adding in a few more additional benefits.