Here is a relatively worthless datapoint. One month ago my wife attempted to apply for a Hilton card. She received the pop up and we cancelled her application. I’ve used her Everyday card then last 3 weeks to take advantage of some AMEX offers (groceries, Staples, Happy gift cards, BP gas) and today she just applied for the 45k AMEX Green offer and it went through without a hitch.
I am actually annoyed...I should have referred her for the 35k $150 offer instead of the 45k $100 offer. Oh well!