If you are on Fairbanks for 4 nights the stats day you have something like a 75% chance of seeing the aurora. Lows and highs of the cycle just mean lower and higher chances but even in the lower end of the cycle you can see the aurora, even quite strong too.
Have a rental car and stay outside the city if you can.
Yes, apparently I read this same info about the chances of seeing aurora. Couple of nights, I did drive around within 40 miles of city center to "chase" to no avail. The clouds were just to heavy. I particularly like the area where the pipelines are. That would have been great foreground.