Yes, my basis on this thread was Chase really trying to be a virtual closed loop network to control all aspects and cost/revenue of the transaction. We agree it could probably do so in the US because of its size, but would need an international network for overseas card use. To have Visa renew the deal three years ahead of time indicates that nothing had really gotten better for Visa in the conversation and Chase continued to grow leverage (probably due to transaction volume). I think the new agreement does bring stability to cardholders on the next decade of the various reward programs Chase offers (not expecting any major change in costs to Chase). It also tells Discover that it is not going to get a suitor from Chase.

Now, my question is Chase growing with organic spending (is the pie of card transactions growing) or other FIs losing volume?

I think AmEx has done a good job rebounding and creating value in its premium card space (70% of cardholders pay an AF). I have been impressed with the innovation they have brought to the table (arguably a very successful Gold relaunch, something big pending for Green, reinforced Platinum support and an interesting PlanIt product).

Except for CSR, I haven't seen Chase pursue enough new successful innovation. The soon to be done ChasePay, almost unknown Blueprint and lackluster Freedom Unlimited are some examples. I await to see if Chase will bring something new to the table or if they have enough cardholder ingrained mindshare to avoid people switching cards.