Originally Posted by
chongcao
My personal take on this issue focus on two front. The first front is when CAAC recalled CX management it was done through Central and Southern bureau. It is highly unusual as normally HK, Macau and Taiwan affairs related to aviation is done at the CAAC headquarter level. There is a special office in Beijing I believe. The second front is that CX was singled out among many possible HK entities, after CX bought Hong Kong Express, part of Hong Kong Airlines, which is part of HNA group. During the take over talks, there are raids of offices and disagreement with CEOs etc. Interested party can look back from news archives.
From above two fronts I mentioned, I do not see any possibility of further actions from CAAC bar from few minor requests. Is the harassment from CAAC a political motivation for punish CX purchase of UO which in turn helped hot potato HNA? Was the involvement of Central and Southern bureau a reminder for CX not to interfere possible Oneworld membership of China Southern?
I don't know. But, one of CXs shareholder CITIC is facing some financial difficulties, one of its subsidiary in Beijing is going through bankruptcy. As CNY loosing value slowly, CITIC, a giant that is backed by Chinese government, needs CX to pay great dividend in order to meet its target.
In the mean time, Air China has been very quiet. If any past experience shows, Air China would move in sync with CAAC and has to make some noise as one of the biggest shareholder. None. Air China reletively kept quiet shows that the meeting with CX management is a Central and Southern bureau stunt.
Again, under the new reality of weak Yuan and soft demand, Air China together with other Chinese carriers are cancelling onboard meals to save cost. It is not in Air China's interests to see CX perform badly nor Air China has the financial means to absorb CX.
Just my 2 Hong Kong dollars.
I will say your point about HNA doesn't make sense to me. HNA has sold their assets these years, and the buyers of their subsidiaries include some local governments. It doesn't seem to be a big problem for Cathay to buy it.
But It triggers my thought when you talked about 'Central and Southern bureau'. I will say it is more like a harassment from the airline based in Guangzhou. Membership of OW for CZ can be a reason for this harassment, but it seems that CX has already vetoed it and CZ finally finds an opportunity for their revenge. Please keep in mind that CZ says that they will not consider joining any alliance for now.
And yes I will say I don't see any further harassment from CAAC, but it is not because of CZ. The warning from CAAC came in the early August, when the central government took a tougher line on HK protesters. At that time, the national TV and newspaper of China fully unleashed their propaganda and broadcast the videos of PLA and riot police everyday, threatening sending tanks to streets in Hong Kong. Cathay Pacific is one of the victims in this period.
But from the late August, the central government changed their strategy and had to soften their stance since the so-called 'Foreign Forces' really stepped in. A further harassment for Cathay is not consistent their current strategy.
By the way, I have read your remarks on one Chinese aviation forum recently lol
