Thanks everyone. I was looking back and it appears I made a large error in my forward calculation. The AQD for the ticket I was calculating from appears to have been on a sale fare. I believe if I walk the line between booking last minute and just far enough in advance to be reasonable I should be able to eek past the $20K AQD threshold and into SE. Considering cashing in 85,000 Aeroplan points for a $1K AC gift card (Currently on promotion) for an AQD run if I need to push over the edge. Next year I'm going to have to pay more attention, lots to learn still.