Originally Posted by synthkeys

Cathay sells biz class tickets in 4 different fare class. They are J,C.D and I listed and basically that's the order of the fare price, J being most expensive and least restrictive, I class being the most discounted fare with the most restrictions.

Attempting to discern whether you're PEY (R class) ticket will get confirmed for upgrade award is non-specific as there aren't any tools available for us to accurately predict if CX will release an upgrade award to biz (i.e. J). High availability for I class tickets (most discounted biz) is a possible indicator for upgrade award inventory but there is no guarantee. I've had plenty of booking that showed I9, yet was unable to confirm upgrade award early. CX wants go sell revenue tickets as a priority. If revenue management predicts they can sell those tickets then upgrade award won't be available.

The user above looks like they are posting from a tool called KvsTool which can check for ticket availability. I use, like many others, expertlyer.com, which shows similar numbers. For your flight, EF is showing - J9 C5 D3 I0 W6 R4 E1 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V2 S0 N0 Q0 O0. Given those numbers -- I0, I wouldn't be very confident on clearing the waitlist for an upgrade confirmation. The waitlist will disappear at T-96 (4 days before departure). Theres a chance that closer to departure, CX may open more discount tickets and possibly open some upgrade awards. Problem is that if that happens after waitlist expires, T-96, those awards become first come, first served, no more waitlist.

The strategy would be to call MPC every day and inquire about upgrade availability. If upgrade is still not confirmed, ask at the check-in counter for instant upgrade.

We really need a FAQ about this in the "Will my award waitlist clear?" thread.