Data Point. I tried applying for the Hilton No annual fee card for the 90k bonus and got the dreaded pop up telling me I do not qualify for the bonus. I never had this card and currently hold the Hilton Surpass card. I regularly put spending on it when I stay at Hilton properties at least once a quarter with $500 or so for hotel rooms, but do not use it as a everyday card.
The only other card ive had and closed was the SPG after it became Marriott.
I guess thats enough for AMEX to not value me as a customer. Oh wells.