Yes you are absolutely gambling. There are factors at play during the 5 day hold which you have no visibility into:
- More revenue seats could have been sold to the point QR doesn't warrant releasing an award seat.
- If QR allows waitlisting by their own members, someone added themselves to the waitlist. Once you release the seat, the award, assuming it stays as an award, may get awarded to the waitlist.
- The award seat, assuming it comes back, may not come back until days later; no guarantee it will be release immediately after cancelling.