At that time of day it’ll be a stand off between M23/M25 rush hour vs Brighton Main Line and Tube rush hour.
Either option looks tight - I believe a 3 hour connection is specified on flights.
For train - albeit expensive - around 40 minutes Gatwick to Farringdon on a fast-ish Thameslink, 20 minutes to Paddington on the H&C line, then allowing for the long walk to the HEx platforms probably another 30 minutes.
That all relies on you arriving at Gatwick, being able to get a ticket quickly, and having a fast Thameslink pretty much straight away.
I have done the National Express option once and even on a Sunday it took 2 hours because of traffic, they go via the North Terminal first before hitting the motorways.
Good luck!