I only have one data point so far. Booked a night at a property under the rate, but the stay itself never posted. I submitted a missing points request for the stay, and only the points for room rate, f&b, elite bonus, and platinum welcome amenity posted, but not the 2,000 bonus points that were supposed to post according to the room rate I booked.
I followed up my request with a screenshot of the rate description itself and received this confusing response from Marriott Customer Care:
"Promotional bonus points are never posted by our Front Desk staff, <ImprovGal>. Although, we offer our Front Desk staff 7-10 business days to post eligible stay credits more time is required to post bonus points. Bonuses will post in a different place than your stay details. As a one time good will gesture, I have posted your bonus points to your Marriott Bonvoy rewards account. "

The 2,000 points were posted with description of "Adjustment-Positive" in my account.