Originally Posted by
Kevcwang
i guess my question to the community is when do these upgrades clear? i would have thought that for sure the domestic one i would have gotten one of the 6 available spots, especially close to 24 hours before departure. is it possible that united will NOT upgrade me at all but instead give the seats to other upgraded folks (who did not pay with miles or $), if the seats aren't sold?
Upgrades can be processed at any time prior to departure, including once you've already boarded.
That said, you won't clear IAD-SFO unless several people miss their flight. That flight's inventory is 47/50 -- the seat map isn't always accurate -- and they will sell the last three seats between now and departure: either to people buying last-minute first class tickets, people changing from another flight, or people buying cash upgrades that United offers during check-in.
Even if they don't, the chance that you're in the top 3 of the upgrade list at departure is slim; you'll be behind all Global Services members, plus any 1K members who used an instrument, and any platinum members who used an instrument and are on a higher fare class than you.
Your SFO/HKG flight is trickier. It's booked 59/60 in business class and 19/24 in Premium Economy. I don't know that we have good information yet about clearance rates to PE. (Again, you won't clear to business class unless there are a lot of misconnects). However, I suspect they may convince a few people to buy up to PE, since business won't be an option. You might clear at check-in, but my guess is that, if you clear, it won't be until the gate.
(Note that you can actually clear
after you board; the gate agents will come on to give you a new boarding pass, or you can watch in the app to see if you're moved).
Good luck!