Originally Posted by
Symmetre
There seems to be a consensus that the Max isn’t flying again this year, and quite possibly for some time into 2020. The longer this drags on, the harder it’s going to be for Boeing and the airlines to convince people to fly on it at all. You have to wonder where the tipping point is, and they just cease to be a viable option any more.
The cynical view:
- It is unlikely the average member of the public can spot a MAX 8 compared with any other 737 at an airport, if not any other twin-jet from any manufacturer.
- I’m sure “MAX 8” will be painted over on any aircraft and perhaps changed to something else.
- The aircraft designator in bookings will probably change from 7M8 to something else.
- $5 is all that is required in price difference for many people to choose one flight over another (based on research I was privy to about 10 years ago).
- Boeing will have to become bankrupt before they give up on the MAX,
- It is unlikely that Boeing will scrap the aircraft currently in service and the 500 or so likely produced before a return to service, with a right-down value of about $85 billion USD.
- Production of any MAX competitor will take years to increase to fill the void the MAX has left in aircraft deliveries, so the airline industry will generally be unable to fulfil demand without the MAX, unless ticket prices rise significantly to suppress demand.
I think within 6 months of reintroduction into service that the MAX 8 fiasco will have been forgotten by most members of the public and not relatable to flights that they will be choosing to fly on.