FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - [Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
Old Jul 26, 2019, 12:12 am
  #1441  
Jamester
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Bay Area
Programs: UA1MM, *G,HA Premier Club, Hyatt Disc, HHonors Gold, Marriott LTPlat, ClubCarlson Gold, IHG PlatAmb
Posts: 1,280
Originally Posted by Jamester
Generally speaking, is SFO-MUC much easier to clear upgrade than SFO-FRA (as a 1K MM and a 2P companion using GPUs)? We're talking something like Dec 21 (the last weekend before Christmas). How about FRA-SFO or MUC-SFO on Dec 31 (which I could also select something like AMS-IAH-SFO or LHR-SFO)? Any other creative routing ideas with easier chance to upgrade (without making more than 1-2 stops that is)? Background: ultimate destination is ZRH - but I can get intra-European tickets separately for cheap. I think I'm stuck with UA metal if I'm using GPUs (unless I want to gamble with LH availability).

I understand there are TONS of factors involved, just looking for some kind of generalization, and I understand SFO-FRA-SFO are the only ones with real Polaris seats). Much thanks!
A follow up to my post on Jul 21 5:11pm above. Ended up seeing SFO-MUC on LH A380 (Z fare) on Dec 21 and then LHR-SFO on UA B772 (R fare, which is PremiumPlus) on Dec 31...for about USD 3100rt - not sure if that's a bad deal or not, given the holidays (but snagged a couple anyway). And now waitlisted on upgrade with GPUs on the LHR-SFO portion (which also has a USD 100 co-pay).

Ignoring the (hopefully) more affordable MUC-ZRH and ZRH/GVA-LHR intra-European tickets, how do folks think about the chance of a 1K MM & 2P companion (on the same PNR) clearing LHR-SFO from PremPlus to Biz, on a New Year's Eve? Current stats: J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z8 ZN8 P4 PN0 PZ0 IN0 I0 O9 ON9 A9 R1 RN0 Y9 YN9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 HN9 Q9 V9 W9 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 XN0 X0. Seat map indicates 32 (real Polaris) seats (out of 49 total) unassigned. I know it's still more than 5 months out and (supposedly) upgrading from R class to Biz should have a much better chance of clearing - I read that somewhere.

Or should I split the PNR (in case my 2P companion may be 'dragging me down' on the waitlist)? At least if one of us has to stay back, Premium Plus doesn't sound bad.

Another data point: I was offered instant upgrade (upon completion of booking) on LHR-SFO for $1050 each (but still counting on using my GPUs that exp in Jan 2020).

Thx as always for your input!

Last edited by Jamester; Jul 26, 2019 at 12:25 am Reason: Added more facts.
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