Team,
It isn't difficult to understand. I'm not a kettle, I'm a 1k and on routes over 3 hours I use RPU's either my own or CC trades. the most important factor for me isn't how many people are sitting in coach, it is the amount of F seats to upgrade into period.
I don't think anyone outside of UA has data on how many seats are booked on 175's vs A320 etc. However, I don't think the loads of purchased F would vary a great deal. Thus how many seats in the front are open after the purchased F. Boom Bob's your uncle to all you Canadians.
Again total F vs. Y isn't the formula. It is available seats for upgraders after purchased F. The numbers aren't commensurate to upgrade chances because you have less Y passengers.
I don't have to convince anyone, it works good for me. If you have a different take, I guess it would further help my chances so by all means keep it up.