Any recent data points re: upgrades using Asia miles and which status to use?

I am AA Executive Platinum and CX Silver. I am waitlisted for an upgrade PE->J for HKG-LHR CX 225 July 8th. Still showing plenty of seats in J. I would assume my OWE status would be higher, but I was flying with my wife a few weeks ago from LAX-HKG. Both booked into I fares. She had her MPC Silver in the system and I had my AA EXP (OWE). She got an op-up from J->F and I was rather surprised (even though I would have given it to her anyway).

Looks like its random if OWE beats CX Silver these days? What made it more surprising was that I have more CP on CX this year than she does as well...