May 20 - mailed renewal application to PA, regular processing (online estimates showing 4-6 weeks processing time). Travel booked for July 5.
May 22 - application arrived at facility
May 24 - check processed
May 25 - received email with locator number
June 17 - called to ask for update. Told that processing times are taking 6-8 weeks and received recommendation to expedite. Paid extra $76 to expedite processing and for overnight shipping.
June 20 - checked online status using locator number. Still showing "routine service" and credit card had yet to be charged the expedited fee. Called again. Was told that expedited status can take up to 8 days to show up in the system. Was told that they were aware of my travel on 7/5 but earliest they could do anything else would be at 8 am ET on 7/2. If I had not received my passport, I could call again and my application could be put to the front of the line due to "urgent travel."
June 26 - received email stating that passport had finished processing, was being printed, and passport would be delivered on or before 6/29.
June 27 - received passport in mail.

Long story short, I thought routine service would be fine given that when I applied in May it was showing 4-6 weeks processing time online. That update online subsequently changed (as confirmed on this message board as well as reps on the phone). Perhaps processing times vary based on where you are required to send your request, but on the East Coast, I think it's legit taking 6-8 weeks. Expedite as necessary to avoid additional stress.