Originally Posted by
longmanzz
Do they continue to sell seats when the availability shows 0? or the number showing on EF is not accurate?
I am intrigued to buy a flight with "
W1 R1 E1" hoping for an upgrade as emerald. But looking at other dates where W is 0, we cannot buy any tickets. So wonder if I snatch that last W, will CX simply not selling any more seats so it will not be oversold.
Originally Posted by
SilverChris
The numbers just show how much they're willing to sell. To what extent it's oversold (if at all) is only known by the people behind the scenes at CX. Your op-up chances are affected by many other factors, like how full the classes above and below you are, the number of elites, no-shows, cancellations, etc.
Exactly as
SilverChris says.
OP you are making a mistaken assumption, I think: that W1 R1 E1 means NOT oversold. How do you know? It could already be oversold! This is just the availability
for sale. Similarly, something with W0 doesn't necessarily mean PEY is full on its own (although to be fair, it does admit CX expects it PEY likely be busy somehow....perhaps through direct PEY sales, but also perhaps through an oversold Y aka PEY could be empty but Y selling briskly in high fare classes especially, perhaps due to a crew needing to deadhead somewhere, or inoperable seats, or other issues, etc.). Other factors like loading in J and F also matter, and scores of other variables.
CX makes many assumptions, estimates and has a lot of variables to consider. But the bottom point is to say, what you're referring to just means how many seats CX is willing to sell. It speaks nothing to the oversold or not situation. You are right there is a general correlation between low or 0 seats available for sale and business, of course. But it is not a guarantee of something. And especially the difference between 0 and 1 seat available for SALE, it is virtually the same thing.
Generally speaking, if Y is oversold you're looking good in PEY for an op-up. That's a better criteria given how small the PEY cabin is. And, the second most important variable is how empty is J. If half of J class is still open (and F too), they're going to sell the hell out of Y and PEY usually, way past capacity.
To finish with an optimistic spin, your PEY cabin with W1 might already be full, say if J class is wide open. And CX maybe decided J won't sell well on that date and route. So CX might just be selling Y and PEY tix now which are essentially tickets in a higher cabin for elites, due to op ups. Your PeY cabin might already be oversold by 10! Get it?