Originally Posted by tann1001
(actually you dont even multiply the probablility by the number of passengers, because that way you could end up with a probability of grreater than 1... but thats another story)
True, but you still multiply it by a lot. If the average number of volunteers needed is n, you can multiply by [total pax]/n for a decent approximation.
Originally Posted by tann1001
Anyway... That’s like saying, "ah, but you have to multiply the probability by the number of passengers in the world who are going to fly on a plane today. Whoa, it’s huge... I predict there is going to be a bump to be had somewhere in the world today!” The probability that YOU will get a bump (which is the point of this thread) remains the same.
Not a fair point. Particularly on routes on which run the same number/type of planes each day, choice and day of week and time of day makes a massive difference to bump chances. Mid-week flights on some routes may never fill up, while weekend flights may be busy. (This is why I always book mid-week flights trans-pacific -- because I want a spare seat next to me if in Y or a chance to upgrade.)