First, even if the flight is overbooked, it is rare for it to result in an actual oversale. People oversleep, get sick, die, misconnect and so on. AA's algorithms are quite sophisticated. Thus, the fact that the flight may fill up does not mean AA will overbook it by much.

Second, both US and EU law require that AA solicit volunteers before involuntarily denying boarding. The EC 261/2004 compensation would be EUR 600 and the US compensation would be 400% of the base fare up to a maximum of $1,350.

AA will generally offer compensation above the cash level if the passenger is willing to accept a voucher. It must cover its duty of care, to include a hotel and meals.

In the event that there are no volunteers, US law requires that AA deny boarding according to a pre-established list. As a general matter, if you have any status, you will not even come close to being denied boarding. Other factors include class of service and fare basis.

Bottom line here is that there is a much greater chance that you won't make it home as scheduled due to weather, air traffic, or a mechanical issue.