Originally Posted by
iflyjetz
Actually, lower oil prices might end up shutting them down quickly, as Norwegian is overhedged. Let's wait until we see how much they're carrying in unrealized hedging losses in the May traffic figures report which will be released in the next couple of weeks. Anything over a billion NOK in unrealized losses and they'll likely have blown through their minimum capitalization covenants.
In addition, Norwegian has been running nearly nonstop fare sales through the summer. This indicates to me that they are running very low on cash and are struggling to just meet payroll.
Someone's been selling the stock aggressively in the last few weeks.
The NA industry cartel kingpins have also been running fare sales through the summer at least for EU/Schengen-area-originating trips. Some of the August and September travel ticket prices I've been seeing for EU/Schengen-US-EU/Schengen trips are the cheapest, non-flash sales I've seen legacy majors offer for such trips over the last twenty years -- and that's in nominal USD-terms. In terms of real USD terms (i.e. inflation-adjusted), the legacy majors seem to be undercutting their historical prices way more. To some this may speak of a desire of the legacy majors of trying to hit DY with a coup de grace. But that blow against DY and TATL-flying consumers in the main won't happen before the summer is over. And so my purchases for DY flights for August and September summer travel continue as usual.