Don't have a lot of recent ticket purchase experience using miles so I'm hoping those of you who frequently use miles for trips can offer your results. I also know there's no way to be 100% sure, but I'm really on the fence so I hope your words might help me decide.

Spouse and I return on CX from a month in HKG-NZ-Oz on December 26 at 8 pm to SEA. We live in ANC and I would rather sleep in my own bed after spending 29 hours in transit from Oz and 30 days away from home. Only legal direct connection from ANC to SEA that night would be AS 175 or AS 121. Our trip was purchased using 60,000 miles/person/one way, so the matching AS leg would be either 12,500 for Y or 25,000 for F. I've been watching for a few months now (3) and I haven't found the matching ANC to SEA leg. Tempted to purchase two F seats because then we have a plan. Although the tickets wouldn't be refundable, we could still cancel if the right mileage seats opened up, and I'd get most of the $ back in my wallet, I think. Minus $250? My parents live in SE AK so I will use the funds for family time eventually if not for fun times.

If you haven't guessed already, I'm not a gambler and I like having firm plans. Thoughts? Advice? WWYD? Thanks!