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Old Aug 15, 2004 | 3:26 pm
  #147  
law dawg
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 4,704
Lets talk reality

If what is meant by '9/11 style hijacking' is taking over a commercial plane and using it as a missile -- well the threat of that is quite unrealistic today. Not only is such a plan virtually impossible today, it was impossible by the 4th airplane on the morning of Sept 11. Once word got out what the purpose of the hijacking was -- and no one is under any illusions today -- it is clear that a handful of hijackers could at worst blow up an airplane or crash it into a field somewhere. Use it as a bomb to blow up something else -- that is extremely unlikely.

Lets look at some documentation and move out of the realm of opinion for a moment, shall we?

First of all, the only plane that was unwarned was the first plane (American flight 11). They were totally unprepared. United flight 175 (the second one) was warned, although not in much time to do anything. They had only a few minutes. One passenger, Brian Sweeney called his mom (8:59 AM) and told her the passengers were thinking about storming the cockpit. Another passenger, Peter Hanson called his dad (9:00 AM) and told him that he believed the hijackers were going to crash into a building but in Chicago. Minutes later they crashed (9:03 AM). American flight 77 was hijacked between 8:51 and 8:54. Between 9:16 and 9:26 Barbara Olson called her husband, the Solicitor General of the US, and notified him of what had happened. He in turn notified her that the planes were being used as weapons. She asked what to tell the pilot. The plane crashed into the Pentagon at 9:37:46. United 93 was hijacked at 9:28. At 9:32 people started calling their families and were notified of the attacks. The passenger assault began at 9:57 and lasted until the hijackers crashed the plane.

Back to opinion : Look at those times - there was time to fight and nobody did. Only the last flight fought back and it took 25 MINUTES AND A VOTE! This is not to disparage their memories-they were heroic. My point is that most people are not born with the basic double-load of guts. They need time to work up their courage. Going from zero to killing people in a matter of seconds is difficult if not impossible for the average civilian. A few of the Alphas may step forward and get the rest in the fight, but you need time for that. It takes time....adrenaline is a hell of a thing. It freezes many people, especially if they just saw someone brutally murdered. Nonetheless the myth of the passengers fighting back is just that - a myth. Trained soldiers in WWII had a firing rate of only 20%. Think about that - only 20% of TRAINED soldiers in WWII fired their weapons at the enemy. The rate was raised to 80% in Korea and 95% in Vietnam. But that was only because of innovations in training, not because of a new breed of human was developed. Passengers fighting back will only happen given time and the ability to coordinate. Do you think the next hijackers will give them the time to do so? Send them to the back of the plane like on 9/11? I don't. They learn their lessons and have since terrorists began using hijacking as a means of political speech in 1985 (TWA 847 in Athens, Greece).

Which begs the question - will another hijacking happen again? Well, again we turn to the documentation. From 1960-1984 there were 495 hijackings in the world with an average of 20 or so a year. From 1985-2001 there were 390 hijackings, with an average of 25 a year (the year most experts begin the age of terroristic hijacking): http://www.bts.gov/publications/pock...e03_table.html). In 2002 through mid-2003 there were 16 hijackings (there is no more current available data in public records).

The 9/11 attacks saw an impact upon the US unprecedented in the history of this country. Nineteen men, armed only with a small blade and their will, changed the course of our history and hurt us in a way never before seen. Why would they give that up? The world has seen time and time again that terrorists return to hijackings, even after the hijacking ends in utter failure. So why, after their most spectacular success, would they give up this tried and trued method of creating terror and getting worldwide media attention?

Clauswitz said to prepare for your enemy's capabilities not his intentions. We would be wise to follow his advice.

My BS opinion only (backed up with lots of facts). Your mileage may vary.

Law Dawg
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