All -

Hoping someone can point a new CX traveler in the right direction.

Booked ORD-HKG in discounted business class (booked into I). Outbound flight is in early-june, return is in mid-july.

I'd like to take a shot at upgrading to first. Outbound shows F4 and return F6 in expertflyer - obviously way too early to tell.

I have an AsiaMiles account with no miles in it. I have TY points and MR points I can transfer in. OW Emerald if that matters, which I assume it doesn't.

I guess my question is: what's the best way to play this?

Specifically:

1. Can I/should I call and waitlist for an upgrade? Does it matter when? Do I need to have miles in my account to do so?
2. Assuming it doesn't clear a week out, and assuming the numbers look ok, is that the right time to transfer miles in? I understand transfers take 1-4 days and I assume I want to make sure I have miles in my account in case something opens last minute - is that accurate? Fully recognize that I'm gambling if I do this and that I may very well lose.
3. Any sense of when CX has been releasing space lately? Is it 7 days out? 48 hours? 24?

Feel free to point me to other threads. I searched and only found one thread, two years old, that didn't address these questions. I may very well have missed one and if so apologies for cluttering up this thread. Similarly, I haven't read all 72 pages of this thread - but if there are posts in here that address this, I'd welcome being pointed to them.

And finally - many thanks.