Good points, but a consideration for me (I was in the same situation) was getting to IAD or EWR from YYZ. The flights to HNL leave from IAD and EWR at 8:50am and 8.35am , respectively, so you need to either fly-in the night before(added cost), or catch a flight with only ~60 minutes or less of connecting time the same morning - this might be OK for some people, but for me - puts this too risky of a very rushed connection - and potentially missed checked luggage. So, I stuck with ORD which leaves at 10:10am, leaving plenty of time to fly in that morning from YYZ. And, like you said, even the middle 4 layflats are better seats than the originally booked 7M8 business class seats.