Few more data points
3rd or 4th renewal
Applied late February
Approval 30 April
Card received ~10 May
New app (due to letting membership lapse - all info transferred from old GOES/GEOS account)
Applied ~7 March
Conditional Approval 7 May
No walk-ins available ~0850 9 May at YVR (12 people in line)
Will have to wait as getting to a Nexus place is a bit difficult where we are
FWIW, expired Nexus but using old KTN yielded Pre-Check for 3 flights out of 4 where the airline had a KTN input field (only one missing was a flight into the U.S. from Japan but not sure if that mattered, and one of the Pre Check was Canada into U.S. - might have speeded up processing at CBP preclearance)