Do not use the word "connection" when considering separate tickets. They are no such thing.

When booking separate tickets, 100% of the risk falls on the passenger. Thus, time frames are up to the customer. My general advice is to allow 3-4 the MCT as a rule of thumb. This accounts for the ordinary delays which sometimes occur and are then handled by the late delivering carrier. Best is to plan an overnight between such tickets, particularly when the onwards ticket may be expensive or, as here, there are expensive and logistically difficult problems.

The flip side is that one may always find "that" agent who simply reroutes the bags to your current destination. You would be very lucky and ought not to plan on it, but asking is free.