I have been thinking a lot about the devaluation of Bonvoy as a rewards program. To that end, I put together a model in excel that tells me whether to book with points or with cash. I plug in the lowest rate I can get for a particular hotel in dollars and in points. Since I am Titanium and a Bonvoy Premier card holder, I also fold in the additional points that I gain from staying and paying cash. I discount the total rate by the points gained * the perceived value of a Bonvoy point (1.0 cents which is completely debatable).

The model then tells me what to do. If the points redemption is 80% of the cash price, I will book with points. Otherwise, I book with cash.

Telling example:
For a vacation on Singer Island next year, I have booked two rooms - one for “points + cash” (only option available) and a room for cash. Here is what my model tells me -

* If I pay cash, the quoted rate is $315 per night. After backing out the value of the points earned, it brings it down to $243 per night.
* If I pay with points + cash, the “rate” per night is $667 per night. I get to that number by calculating the value of the points + the cash - the points earned.

Using cash costs just 41% of what using points + cash costs.