I'd be surprised if they even have the technical ability to tell which booking method you used in the frequent flyer back end. I would guess it's fairly easy for them to put in a ticketing carrier restriction (ie must be 027 or 081) and certainly a marketing carrier or route (ie the excluded Australia-HNL routings) restriction. But can the Alaska Mileage Plan system tell the difference between a 081 ticket purchased from qantas.com and a 081 ticket purchased from Expedia, for example? Sure, they could have a human check each reservation as it credits, but that sure doesn't seem anything close to worth the effort. And Alaska probably can't even see a QF ticket that doesn't involve any AS flights; the lack of detail that comes in is probably one of the main reason that airlines with revenue-based earning don't use revenue for partner-ticketed flights.

That said, for this many miles, I am not willing to be the guinea pig to test my hypothesis!