MarkOK

I thought I may have had a chance recently on a couple of flights because at T-100 hours there were half empty MCE sections and F sections. Ended up that F was full at check-in time and I was still 10 out of 24 on the upgrade list for 1100 mile long flights (so I doubt there were all that many golds caring to burn three stickers) (and, not sure why 24 people on the upgrade list, but MCE seats were being given away to nonrevs, and on one flight, three MCE seats were empty while the rest of coach was packed full -- are there elites not taking MCE for some reason)? In both cases, F was mostly full of foreign nationals likely connecting to F/J overseas flights.

But, on my way out of on the of the legs, I noticed the 738 was turning around in DFW to a South Caroline airport (greenville I think) and there was 1 person on the upgrade list and it cleared!! Don't know if I am just terrible luck or just fly the worse routes. But I am at 1 upgrade out of 22 eligible legs in the last 8 months (which was a meal-less, nut-less, non PDB <500 mile route).

But yeah, to echo some comments above -- the economy is good, planes are mostly full, F/J seats are selling well. -AND- AA's upgrade policy doesn't care how many/few upgrades anyone received in the past -- for each and every flight they give priority mostly based on EQDs. So I am sure there are a few high EQDs that are still getting decent upgrade rates, as well as perhaps some people on certain routes that have good F seats/elite ratios, but most ExPs (and especially below) are scrapping for crumbs and mostly coming up empty. I feel like the upgrade program is worthless for me -- would trade it wholly for just 1 or 2 confirmed at booking upgrade awards.