That Airbus backlog is also going to get worse. But waiting a few years vs. flying an airplane that no one wants to fly in, and the waiting seems like a reasonable trade off.

Even when Boeing addresses the issues, which I’m not convinced they are making a full effort to do from what I’ve seen, there’s public perception problem which could last a lot longer. Guaruda just canceled their MAX orders, and their statement cited customer confidence in the aircraft. Obviously, they’re in indonesia, which is particularly sensitive due to that being Lion Air’s home. But Boeing has a real issue. My belief is that Boeing will see a lot more cancelations, especially if the grounding goes beyond more than a couple of months. And Id guess there is a good chance the program makes little $ for Boeing due to compensation they’ll need to pay out, order cancelations as well as being forced to reduce pricing to get people to consider it any longer. I’d bet there will be real pressure to eliminate order cancelation penalties as well.

Airbus, despite their backlog, probably has a huge sales advantage now, and yes, UA should consider buying from them. I’ve always liked the 320s better anyway. UA May have more of its interests as a company in mind, but don’t forget that if customers don’t have a feeling that they’ll be safe onboard the aircraft they fly in, then there might be no airline left, so the Airbus may fit quickly into UAs interests.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how this all shakes out in the weeks, months and years ahead.