I have the 15k for $1730 offer.
I flew to MEL and back end of December to make 1K. If this offer had been made to me then.... I still wouldn't have taken it as it would have left me short PQM.
Since I was short $1,500 PQD last year until that last run, $1730 doesn't get me near the $4500 I'm likely to be short this year.
Now, if United announced that 2020 GPUs weren't subject to the lottery, that $4,500 might seem mildly more reasonable...