1. Fact: the AA employees at prefunds.aa.com are laughably, comically lenient in approving refund requests for the most trivial of schedule change, delay, or irregularity
2. Fact: if you book AA flights more than ~4 months out, you are basically guaranteed a schedule change as AA's schedule from 4 to 11 months out is a place holder
3. Fact: 25% of all AA flights are delayed or cancelled
Put the pieces together.