On a different note:
You can get all the explanations you want, whether correct or not, waste your and the airline's time, and it still doesn't matter. You didn't get upgraded in the end.
Stop worrying so much about why it happens, and instead concern yourself with how often it happens. The information is not going to be reliable, the outcome is.
Decide your loyalty on what you get, not what information makes you feel.
I agree. There have been times when I've wondered about the upgrade process at AS, with some of those instances benefiting me and others not working out for me, yet overall AS has treated me very well.
AS publishes certain benefits for us "elite" customers but they are not guaranteed and I don't consider myself entitled to them. How AS decides who sits where is not my business. I consider an upgrade to First Class a gift and I'm grateful for it when I can get it.
Having flown AS and another carrier this past weekend, I can't express enough how happy I was to settle into my seat on AS51/05FEB for the final leg of my trip. It felt like being home...even in the Main Cabin.