I would do 1 or 3 and, as you suggest, # 3 - if you're going to go into Tokyo, may as well do it the evening you arrive and then you're ready to go exploring straight away in the morning.
Hyperdia will give you train times to/from Narita. Going back, up to you as to how much time to leave for check-in, lounge time etc. before your onward flight. Keisei Skyliner leaves Narita Airport terminal 2 at 20.42, 21.12, 21.54 and 22.33. Keisei Skyliner going back (about 40 minutes) leaves Keisei-Ueno at 15.00, 15.20, 15.40, 16.00, 16.20, 16.40, 17.00, 17.20, 17.40, 18.20 (no 18.00 apparently..)
For tickets, try this for
roundtrip Keisei ticket + subway. Note that it's subway only and doesn't cover the JR Yamanote line around Tokyo - shouldn't be an issue, just use the subway to get wherever you're going.