Originally Posted by
LoganFlyer
Given that of the 62 A320s, 61 have been modded in the last 2 years and the 62nd is in mods now, I'd say it's highly unlikely that any more 320s are going to be retired any time soon.
I'm not aware of any official word when A320 (and 757-200) phaseouts will resume. But last year on other message boards, seemingly knowledgeable industry insiders stated that some of the highest cycle A320s could retire by about 2021 give or take. Suppose time will tell. Anyway, these oldest planes will start reaching their maximum cycle limits around this general time period. This is even with Delta participating in Airbus's A320 life extension program.
The newer A320s may easily fly another decade. Ditto for all the A319s, even if the A319 (and Boeing 73W) might be a little more vulnerable to any future oil spikes.
It could depend to some extent on how much or little these oldest A320s are flown. Now that it's a slow time of the year, the more elderly birds may get parked more on off-peak days and used on longer flights to conserve cycles. Older planes tend to need more maintenance anyway so such downtime would be well spent getting extra needed TLC.
BTW, I understand that Delta's upgraded A320s don't have to fly a terribly long time for the new interiors (with their additional seats) to earn a decent return on investment (ROI). Seems that many of the oldest planes were among the first to get the new interiors, so they have already been flying several years with at least P1 Mod seating.