Hello:
The spreadsheet has been completed by 333 people as of today, which is a sizeable number. The sample size is large enough to make some educated inferences. So here is my attempt to make some sense of the data. Along the bottom of the spreadsheet, click on the tabs for various pivot charts and tables.
2018 Qualifying Spreadsheet (view only):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
How many people responded?
A total of 333 responses were recorded, of these 291 qualified for GS. 42 people did not qualify. Of those who qualified for GS, 172 were re-qualifiers (meaning that they were also GS in 2018), and 99 were first time GS.
What does it take to qualify for GS?
I don't know the exact formula, but here is an educated guess. The average PQD spend is $60018 for first time GS and $62280 for requalifiers. Other variables were similar between first timers and requalifiers: UA Metal PQD ($56454 vs $56178), BIS (152K vs 1567), CPM (32 vs 35), PQS (87 vs 98). The minimum PQD for a new GS is $32216 vs $29000 for a requalified GS. The difference in PQD spend was compared statistically using a t-test, and the results were nonsignificant (P=0.306).
Does Prior Spend Matter?
This year in the spreadsheet, I added a new field called 3 year running average for PQD spend. The thinking was that by averaging the past 3 years of spend, it might be possible to see if United factors this into qualification metrics or not. This was not an easy field to calculate, as this requires going back thru your last 3 years of MilePlus statements and manually calculating the number. But thankfully about 80 people filled this out. The 3 year running average PQD for new GS vs requalifiers was considerably different. The mean 3 year PQD was $36347 for new GS vs $54324 for requalifiers. This was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Probably means that they look at previous spend, and have a lower tolerance for new GS. But once you are invited into GS, a healthy yearly spend is expected. What exactly is the threshold? Unsure but the minimum 3 year average PQD spend was $24K for a requalifier vs $20K for a new GS.
Bottom line: if you want GS, plan on spending about $61K, with most of that on UA metal tickets. More than 75% of GS qualifiers have a spend over $50K, and the spend is similar across all home airports.
What about this $50K threshold that I keep hearing about
About three quarters (72%) of all GS qualifiers had PQD spend of greater than $50,000. Its difficult to say why those who spent less than $50K were invited. The ratio of invites for those with spend < $50K was about the same in the new GS vs requalified GS categories. The home airports of these sub-50K spenders is spread out, so there doesn't seem to be a clear pattern.
Does home airport matter?
No, not really. Apart from the top ten airports, most of which were hubs, there doesn't seem to be a large difference in spend requirements for GS qualifiers.
Hub vs Non-hub?
The same key variables (PQD, PQD 3 year, UA metal PQD, PQM, BIS, CPM and PQS) were compared among GS qualifiers in hub cities vs those in non-hub cities. The seven hubs included were: LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, IAH, IAD, EWR. Only two variables were statistically different from each other: PQM (239K in hub markets vs 277K in non-hub markets). Similarly the PQS were significantly different in hub markets (mean of 84.2) vs non-hubs (mean of 118.6). This makes sense since GS in non-hubs will have to take extra flights to connect. So this is understandable. But living in a non-hub doesn't make it any easier to qualify, as the mean PQD is about the same.
What is the absolute minimum PQD spend for GS?
Unclear what the exact methods are that United uses. But one user (nabster) qualified for GS with a PQD total spend of only $29,000. This was one extreme outlier. Not sure what this user did to get GS, but s/he was based out of a hub city and was a requalifier. It seems like they are more flexible on spend if you've been GS for a while.
Love to hear other thoughts on this.