As a datapoint, flew into PHL from JAX (non-stop) yesterday. Bags off carousel in 15 minutes - I had three checked (one golf bag) all marked priority. 2 bags were in first 12 bags off, golf bag maybe 25th or so.
IME, if you are on a non-stop and checked in with plenty of time, priority bags seem to arrive earlier on the carousel. Connect (particularly a tight one) and it becomes more random.